Natural population growth rate is simply the difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a region.
“Population growth has been slowing down from an average annual growth rate of 3.5% in 1971 to 0.4% in 2024, which is projected to further remain flat at an average annual growth rate of 0.4% till 2036,” states the survey.
The population increase takes place mainly due to an increase in natural growth rate.
Decrease in natural growth rate can cause issues such as lower population in the work age group and higher dependency ratio, which increases the economic pressure on the workforce.
The Economic Survey states that, as youth form the backbone of any economy, this is true for Goa too at present with 25.9% of its population is youth i.e. aged 15 to 29 years. However, as this youth population ages, the Economic Survey states that Goa will need better healthcare facilities to deal with this change in demography.
“It is observed that the base of the population pyramid is becoming narrow indicating a decline in proportion of the population aged under 15 years,” states the Economic Survey.
While the greater proportion of youth at present will result in a greater proportion of elderly in the population in future. This will create a demand for better healthcare facilities and development of welfare schemes/programmes for elderly people.”
The Economic Survey states that as per the population projections by the National Commission on Population of the Union health and family welfare ministry, Goa’s population in 2024 is expected to be approximately 15.8 lakh. Goa’s birth rate had also fallen during the pandemic, which is yet to improve to the pre-pandemic levels. Goa’s birth rate was 11.6 live births per thousand population prepandemic.
This went down to 9.7 live births recorded per thousand population in 2021. Despite improvement in 2022, the birth rate remains lower than pre-pandemic levels at 10.8 live births per thousand population, as per the Economic Survey. The Survey states that an unusually high number of deaths were reported in Goa in 2021 at 18,337, which the Economic Survey attributes to the Covid pandemic.
In comparison, the deaths reported in a year prior to the pandemic were around 13,000. The infant mortality rate and the maternal mortality rate has, however, improved in Goa since the pandemic. The state recorded 8.83 infant deaths per thousand live births in 2022, as against 9.09 infant deaths per thousand live births in 2021.
Similarly, during the year 2022, 57.7 per one lakh live births was Goa’s maternal mortality rate for the year, as compared to 123 per lakh live births during the year 2021. The latest National Family Health Survey for 2019-21 shows that Goa’s literacy rate is up to 93.2% from the 88.7% recorded by the 2011 Census.